Queensland’s property market has continued its northward run through the first half of 2026, with the March quarter delivering strong median price growth across houses and units — even as national sentiment shifts and new economic headwinds emerge.
According to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland’s latest data, the statewide median house price rose 4.21% over the March quarter to $990,000 — up 15.7% on the same time last year. Units weren’t far behind, climbing 4.81% to $817,500, representing annual growth of 17.19%.
Brisbane led the charge in the capital, with the median house price rising 3.18% over the quarter to $1.46 million, while the unit market surged 6.67% to $880,000. Across Greater Brisbane, house prices lifted 5.75% to $1.15 million and units gained 5.74% to $837,500.
Beyond Brisbane, the numbers were equally compelling. Noosa posted the state’s strongest quarterly house price growth at 8.39%, pushing its median to $1.68 million. Moreton Bay was the standout performer among Brisbane LGAs for houses, up 5.3% to $1.053 million, while Ipswich led unit growth at 7.42%. Regional Queensland continued its remarkable run, with both Rockhampton and Toowoomba recording 18.93% annual house price growth.
Momentum Strong, But the Mood Is Shifting
While the numbers remain impressive, REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella notes a change in sentiment. “Up until the end of March, there were no obvious signs of a slowdown just yet — but the mood in the market is becoming more cautious,” she said. “People are asking what comes next if they make a move, how much further borrowing costs could rise, and what broader economic pressures might mean for their household budget.”
The fundamentals underpinning Queensland’s market, however, remain intact. Supply is tight, population growth continues to sustain demand, and new housing completions are running approximately 33% below Queensland’s National Housing Accord target — a structural gap that places a natural floor under prices.
CBA Economists Downgrade National Outlook — But Brisbane Holds
As we enter June 2026, Commonwealth Bank senior economists Trent Saunders and Ashwin Clarke have downgraded their national price outlook, now expecting dwelling prices to be flat over 2026 — revised down from a forecast of 3% at the May Federal Budget, and 5% earlier in the year.
“The tax changes have accelerated a slowdown that was already underway. Auction clearance rates have been falling since the RBA started its recent hiking cycle, price growth has continued to slow, and sales activity has softened,” Saunders and Clarke wrote.
Nationally, the picture is uneven. Sydney and Melbourne have weakened the most, recording continued price falls — particularly in higher-priced suburbs. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are still growing, but at a slower pace. Brisbane remains one of the few capital cities where both the fundamentals and the data continue to point in the right direction.
New investor lending is expected to fall sharply over 2026, with loan volumes potentially running at around half of late 2025 levels as returns compress and more buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach. Despite this, CBA economists maintain that housing outcomes will ultimately be driven by interest rates, supply and population growth — not tax policy alone — and expect prices to stabilise and begin recovering in 2027.
Budget Reforms Add Uncertainty for Investors
Independent economic modelling commissioned by the REIA, Master Builders Australia and the Property Council has quantified the potential impact of the Federal Government’s proposed negative gearing and CGT discount changes. The analysis found the reforms could reduce new dwelling starts by around 14,000 in the first four years, while pushing rents up by as much as 1.62% by 2029/30.
On a $600-per-week rental, that translates to an additional $10 per week above what renters would otherwise have paid. The modelling also found that a $2 billion Housing Support Program, while positive, would only offset around 5,300 of those lost starts — far short of what’s needed to keep pace with demand.
The REIQ, alongside peak industry bodies, has publicly called on the Government to amend the policy package to better support housing supply and maintain progress toward the National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029.
Where Things Stand — June 2026
Queensland’s property market enters the second half of 2026 with strong underlying data but a more cautious national backdrop. Affordability constraints are real, consumer confidence has softened, and policy uncertainty is weighing on investor sentiment. At the same time, tight supply, strong population growth and continued price gains across virtually every region suggest the fundamentals remain firmly in place.
Brisbane and South East Queensland remain clear outperformers relative to the national picture. While the broader market may be pausing for breath, the long-term drivers here — population, undersupply, liveability — haven’t changed. For buyers and investors with a medium-to-long horizon, the current environment is less a warning sign and more a window.
As Ms Mercorella put it: “The question now is not whether Queensland property has proven to be strong — it’s how the market will handle the headwinds on the horizon.”
