While Sydney and Melbourne are showing signs of fatigue, Brisbane is doing something quietly extraordinary: it keeps going.
A new report from PRD Research — the Smart Moves: Capital Cities Edition 1st Half 2026 — has confirmed what those of us working in the Newstead and Teneriffe market have been watching unfold for years. Brisbane’s property market is not cooling. It is simply settling into a new, higher baseline, and the structural forces underpinning that growth show no signs of reversing.
The Numbers That Matter
Brisbane house prices have risen 14% over the past 12 months to a median of $1.15 million. Units have surged 23% to $750,000. PRD’s chief economist Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo is forecasting a further 8–10% growth in houses and 16–18% in units over the next 12 months.
That is not speculative optimism. It is a function of supply and demand that has become structural rather than cyclical.
Against annual demand of more than 25,000 house sales, Brisbane has just 275 new homes planned. In the unit market, demand for approximately 14,000 new apartments is being met by a heavily skewed development pipeline — and the better-located, better-built stock in precincts like Newstead and Teneriffe continues to trade at a significant premium to anything else on the market.
Even Rate Rises Won’t Derail It
The national backdrop has shifted. Auction clearance rates have fallen to 47.4% nationally — the lowest since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020. Federal government changes to capital gains tax discounts and the removal of negative gearing for existing residential property have weighed on sentiment in other markets.
Brisbane’s chronic undersupply is a buffer that those markets simply don’t have.
“Even if there’s another one or two cash rate hikes in 2026, that deep undersupply is still enough to keep Brisbane’s prices going. There’s still enough there to carry us through a higher cash rate period.”
Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo, PRD Chief Economist
Vacancy rates back that up. Brisbane currently sits at 0.8% — effectively zero available rental stock — with rental yields of 2.9% for houses and 3.7% for units providing steady returns against a rising price floor.
What This Means for Owners in Newstead and Teneriffe
The PRD report identifies timing as critical — for buyers and sellers alike. The window between now and 2027 is widely considered the last period of relative access before the Olympic infrastructure premium fully reprices inner Brisbane.
For owners sitting on well-located apartments in buildings like Y43, Luminare, One Oak or Le Bain, the conditions have rarely been stronger. Pre-market demand from our buyer database remains at levels we haven’t seen since the early months of the post-COVID recovery — and 70% of Cavalé properties are still selling before they ever reach the portals.
If you’ve been considering your timing, the data suggests the time to act is ahead of the curve, not behind it.
Interested in a confidential market appraisal? Contact Ari Shahbazifar at Cavalé — 0430 024 560 or ari@cavale.au.
